Search found 278 matches

by Mike
Wed Feb 02, 2005 9:28 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Payouts during ER
Replies: 6
Views: 4702

When do people plan to access their retirement funds? Right at the beginning (59 1/2) or wait until the last minute when they are forced to (70 1/2)? Is there some secret algorithm I don't know about? If I can withdraw any tax free at 59 1/2, I may. Otherwise, I will probably just keep it in the IR...
by Mike
Wed Feb 02, 2005 7:36 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching with Small Cap Value Stocks
Replies: 28
Views: 14365

JWR1945 wrote:The killer for stock portfolios is having to sell lots of shares when prices are low. Avoid doing that and you are likely to succeed.
Minimizing expenses in the critical first few years would seem to be sensible.
by Mike
Tue Feb 01, 2005 8:08 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Large Cap Growth and Switching
Replies: 1
Views: 2408

...the S&P500 did better than Large Cap Growth.
It makes sense that if value outperformed the S&P, growth must necessarily have underperformed.
by Mike
Tue Feb 01, 2005 8:30 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Payouts during ER
Replies: 6
Views: 4702

My pension puts me in a taxable bracket, so I ignore the IRA.
by Mike
Mon Jan 31, 2005 9:04 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: SCV50 Tables
Replies: 3
Views: 2984

I caution readers that Small Cap Value might not actually exist. That's interesting. I have had positive experiences with mutual funds that claim to be SCV since the fall of 2002, but they may not invest in the Fama/French data base stocks. I am not sure a micro cap value index fund could grow larg...
by Mike
Sun Jan 30, 2005 8:45 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching with Small Cap Value Stocks
Replies: 28
Views: 14365

7.4%, not bad.
by Mike
Fri Jan 28, 2005 6:00 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 55475

100% SCV worked pretty good during that period. Of course, value is very popular now, so it is not necessarily as good a value as it was.
by Mike
Wed Jan 26, 2005 5:48 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: S&P500+Govt Long Bonds: Bad news
Replies: 5
Views: 4250

But investors were better off abandoning Government Long Bonds...
They did, and switched to equity and real estate. However, this helped drive the S&P dividend yield below 2%, making future returns potentially less promising than before.
by Mike
Wed Jan 26, 2005 5:43 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching Allocations with Large Cap Value
Replies: 1
Views: 2249

I have not made any adjustments for today's valuations.
An important point since value is very popular today. There are not a lot of under valued assets around.
by Mike
Tue Jan 25, 2005 5:06 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Description of JWR1945's "Gummy 02 Calculator"
Replies: 2
Views: 2473

Thanks John.
by Mike
Mon Jan 24, 2005 11:19 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Any FIRE calcs with International market historical data ?
Replies: 14
Views: 8259

Gummy's new calculator shows the TSE-300 (Canadian stock market) improving retirement portfolios versus the S&P for the 1966 to present period.
by Mike
Mon Jan 24, 2005 3:54 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 55475

The spreadsheet (such as it is), is here:
Large cap value, and especially small cap value really did well during that period.
by Mike
Mon Jan 24, 2005 3:27 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 55475

It'll be of little value unless the user has access to E10/P data for her particular portfolio One additional factor to consider. Even when a person can calculate their E10/P, as a general rule portfolios less diversified than an S&P index can safely withdraw less for the same E10/P. http://www.ret...
by Mike
Mon Jan 24, 2005 3:16 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 55475

It looks like you could badly lag inflation with this system. As a ball park rule of thumb, it looks like you have to be prepared to cut out 1/3 or so of your original expenses.
by Mike
Wed Jan 19, 2005 11:41 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The year 2000 retiree status
Replies: 24
Views: 10067

Demographics still strongly favor a bull market. Y2K was just a bear within the cyclical bull, caused by tech spending going overboard in the years leading up to the non existent Y2k bug. S&P profits temporarily dropped in half when tech spending ended. The real test will come when demographics turn...
by Mike
Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:01 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 55475

Thanks Gummy.
by Mike
Sun Jan 16, 2005 11:28 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 55475

predicting future volatility, based upon recent historical data
This would suggest to me short term momentum, or at least non random volatility.
by Mike
Sun Jan 16, 2005 11:23 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: War games - 2% vs 4% today
Replies: 54
Views: 18659

I have no idea of how to handle momentum and diversified mutual funds.
Thanks John.
by Mike
Sat Jan 15, 2005 9:35 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: War games - 2% vs 4% today
Replies: 54
Views: 18659

[This is an indicator of momentum. Hulbert has shown (to his surprise) that such stocks outperform the market for about one and a half years.]
Do you favor momentum with individual stocks or more diversified mutual funds?
by Mike
Fri Jan 14, 2005 9:56 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: War games - 2% vs 4% today
Replies: 54
Views: 18659

Ma Bell, a local bank, local utility stock That was before deregulation. When Ma Bell and local utilities were regulated monopolies, a stable profit was virtually guaranteed by their regulators. Now some of them make a lot of money, and others lose money. They are no longer an automatic safe bet fo...