Search found 21 matches

by Oliver
Fri Feb 04, 2005 6:18 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How I spend my post-FIRE time
Replies: 70
Views: 72478

For any latercomers to this thread - it has basically been destroyed by inappropriate posting. I have started another on the same topic titled FIRE - How to spend your time, part 2 Please continue there. karma Thanks for starting the new thread. Oliver
by Oliver
Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:17 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How I spend my post-FIRE time
Replies: 70
Views: 72478

Look at the intercst approach. Is that risk free? Raddr did a standard deviation analysis to see how likely it is that today's valuations will have zero effect on long-term returns, as intercst presumes in the approach that he advocates. He found that there is a one in 740 chance that this assumpti...
by Oliver
Wed Oct 08, 2003 6:07 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: New Issue of Efficient Frontier by William J. Bernstein
Replies: 7
Views: 7824

FYI Oliver Zvi Bodie's reply to Bill Bernstein. Reprinted with permission. Dear Bill: I just read your essay "Zvi Bodie and the Keynes' Paradox of Thrift" at http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/903/bodie.htm. In it you both praise and criticize the new book I have written with Michael Clow...
by Oliver
Mon Oct 06, 2003 10:34 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Fixed Income ETF: Lehman Aggreg. vs GS $ InvestTop Corp Bond
Replies: 6
Views: 12514

Hello Petey, With bonds one should look at the duration of the bonds instead of the average maturity in order to evaluate interest rate risk. I usually invest in short-term corporate bond funds. However, with the current steepness of the yield curve I have some money in intermediate-term bond funds....
by Oliver
Mon Oct 06, 2003 6:51 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Predicting Equity Returns for 37 Countries: Gordon Formula
Replies: 11
Views: 10158

ataloss wrote: I wish they would update their numbers on the www as mentioned in the paper.


Hello ataloss,

I emailed Tower asking if there are any updates. I am also interested in an update!

Oliver
by Oliver
Sun Oct 05, 2003 10:43 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: New Issue of Efficient Frontier by William J. Bernstein
Replies: 7
Views: 7824

New Issue of Efficient Frontier by William J. Bernstein

A new ssue! Zvi Bodie and the Keynes' Paradox of Thrift Signal, Noise, and Success Bigger Than a Breadbox Link of the Month: Luigi and Raghuram Do It Again Location: http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/903/index903.htm or here for a pdf version http://www.efficientfrontier.com/ef/903.pdf Some quotes...
by Oliver
Sun Oct 05, 2003 9:10 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Predicting Equity Returns for 37 Countries: Gordon Formula
Replies: 11
Views: 10158

Predicting Equity Returns for 37 Countries: Gordon Formula

I hope you find this article interesting! Oliver Predicting Equity Returns for 37 Countries: Tweaking the Gordon Formula Kenneth S. Reinker and Edward Tower July 12, 2002 http://www.econ.duke.edu/Papers/Other/Tower/Equity_Returns.pdf Recently, there has been a lot of discussion about whether and how...
by Oliver
Thu Oct 02, 2003 10:37 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Emerging Market Bonds
Replies: 33
Views: 61634

I would be very interested to hear your thoughts on the materials. The lack of recent trading confused me, though the issue is traded in two places. For a fund with over E650m, you would expect more trading. Not having owned an ETF before and read the need for caution on not buying issue with a lac...
by Oliver
Thu Oct 02, 2003 10:37 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Emerging Market Bonds
Replies: 33
Views: 61634

At first I looked at holding several years in cash but when I found a funThere are two UK ETFs now that are popular, one invests in all Corp Bonds in Europe (Euros) and the other top US$ Corp Debt (the latter not so attractive due to your base rate sitting at 1% and ours more like 4%). Both cost 0....
by Oliver
Sat Sep 27, 2003 1:37 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Effect of 2003 tax law on investment strategies Fm Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 6360

Has anyone seen any info on how the capital gains will work when based on the marginal tax bracket? In order to clarify my question, I have created the example below. Single retired taxpayer Interest and short term capital gains = $10,000 Long-term capital gain = $100,000 Long-term capital gains are...
by Oliver
Fri Sep 26, 2003 5:28 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: iShares PDF Newsletter: Emerging Markets ETF feature
Replies: 2
Views: 4072

Hello Petey,

Thanks for the link. I was a bit surprised by this.
Emerging countries now account for nearly 20% of global GDP and include 6 of the world's largest economies.


Oliver
by Oliver
Wed Sep 24, 2003 6:02 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: My new website is up...sorta
Replies: 33
Views: 24245

Hello raddr, There is a banner ad, but no popups! I need to reread your "When to Rebalance?". I think I may still have to rebalance in Jan 2004. :( I guess I should just be happy that I may need to rebalance due to microcaps going up not down. Oliver PS Instead of rebalancing, I could just...
by Oliver
Wed Sep 24, 2003 5:31 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: IRA distrib vs Roth Conv (was SWR and portfolio size?mist.?)
Replies: 10
Views: 9173

Here are the tax brackets after taking the standard deduction.

Approx...........Bracket
7,800 Single 0%
13,000 Single 10%
35,000 Single 15%

15,500 Married 0%
25,000 Married 10%
71,000 Married 15%

Take care,

Oliver
by Oliver
Wed Sep 24, 2003 5:16 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Effect of 2003 tax law on investment strategies Fm Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 6360

Effect of 2003 tax law on investment strategies Fm Vanguard

https://flagship3.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/web/corpcontent/vanguardviews/jsp/VanViewsNCArticle.jsp?chunk=/freshness/News_and_Views/news_ALL_icar_09052003_ALL.html FYI - There are significant benefits if one can keep one's income in the 15% tax bracket. Dividends and LT capital gains are taxed at 5% ex...
by Oliver
Tue Sep 23, 2003 9:13 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: IRA distrib vs Roth Conv (was SWR and portfolio size?mist.?)
Replies: 10
Views: 9173

IRA distrib vs Roth Conv (was SWR and portfolio size?mist.?)

Ataloss - I am not retired and have a goal of finding some pt work in early "retirement" both to keep my options open and take advantage of lower tax rates. I haven't looked at the issue of ira distributions. In general is it always (or under a broad range of circumstances usually) best t...
by Oliver
Tue Sep 23, 2003 8:33 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: SWR was never near 2%
Replies: 2
Views: 5162

SWR was never near 2%

Question: "If you will clearly state (in 100 words or less) what progress you have made in swr analysis" Answer posted by hocus on: Mon Sep 22, 2003 6:49 am We have proven beyond any reasonable doubt that the conventional methodology is invalid. We have put forward for the FIRE community'...
by Oliver
Tue Sep 16, 2003 9:14 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Commodities Index Fund ++
Replies: 16
Views: 12503

More Links Oliver http://www.pimco.com/Spotlight/June03/index.htm Robert Greer Discusses the Benefits of Commodity Investing (Greer is Port Mang, Pimco) http://www.pimco.com/pdf/Benefits%20of%20Real%20Asset%20Diversification.pdf The benefits of real asset portfolio diversification by Adam De Chiara ...
by Oliver
Tue Sep 16, 2003 8:33 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Commodities Index Fund ++
Replies: 16
Views: 12503

Commodities Index Fund ++

The Pimco fund looks interesting but I do not know if it is worth the fees. Oliver Hard Assets, Hardly Tame by Anne Kates Smith http://www.kiplinger.com/magazine/archives/2003/06/commodities.html Zigs and zags Commodities tend to move in tandem with inflation and not in lockstep with the stock and b...
by Oliver
Tue Sep 16, 2003 7:30 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Style/Portfolio Analysis (Lg Value, Lg Grwth, Sm Value, ...)
Replies: 2
Views: 4515

Style/Portfolio Analysis (Lg Value, Lg Grwth, Sm Value, ...)

Hello, I have been using Morningstar xray to look at my portfolio. You can currently try out Xray http://portfolio.morningstar.com/PortDay/PD_landingpage.html?referid=A2036 . I am able to get most of the info from using the Morningstar tools at TR Price for free. What tools have you found useful? Ol...
by Oliver
Sun Jun 01, 2003 8:24 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Is Bernstein changing SWR?
Replies: 19
Views: 16546

Hello John, The difference is that on page 72 of The Four Pillars of Investing he indicates that he expects Large US Stocks to return 3.5%. Expected returns of other equity classes were higher, excepting Precious Metal Equity. Now he is indicating that the expected return on equity is 3%. The most o...