Search found 19 matches

by Delawaredave
Fri Mar 25, 2005 7:02 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Is this board gong away ?
Replies: 2
Views: 14093

Is this board gong away ?

I don't understand the post in the Community Forum - is this SWR Research group going away ?

Any other place to resume this work ?

Thanks !
by Delawaredave
Sun Mar 13, 2005 5:17 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Do you believe this international SWR data ?
Replies: 3
Views: 12396

Do you believe this international SWR data ?

Found an interesting table and article. This table esimates performance of various mix of domestic / international stocks: http://www.fundadvice.com/FEhtml/InvestingBasics/9903/table2.html Here's the base article and another table: http://www.fundadvice.com/FEhtml/InvestingBasics/9903/9903.html http...
by Delawaredave
Fri Mar 04, 2005 12:57 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Something to look forward to.
Replies: 25
Views: 39298

I take it the Motely Fool community boards are only accessible to members - correct ?

I can't access any of these references.

Any way to get ? (besides a membership - I have too many memberships already...)

Thanks
by Delawaredave
Thu Feb 17, 2005 3:02 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: More on Rebalancing
Replies: 10
Views: 18539

Sorry in advance for the stupid question, but these posts with tables of numbers - what do they mean ?

I assume they are some input or output data set for a calculator - but I can't put the puzzle together.

Thanks for any comments !
by Delawaredave
Sun Feb 06, 2005 5:17 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
Replies: 30
Views: 44195

Great discussion. I'm learning a lot about allocations and changing them based on valuations. I guess the question is not "whether or not to be in stocks" - rather what percentage of stocks is most appropriate and what mix. Lot of good information of what is overvalued (seemingly everythin...
by Delawaredave
Sat Feb 05, 2005 8:41 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation-driven, contrarian investing
Replies: 30
Views: 44195

Great thread and forgive me please in advance if I don't use "quote" feature well... Switching into alternative asset classes that have had a poor run, are a little undervalued and thus offer a far better positive return outcome is the only thing that makes sense I agree wholeheartedly wit...
by Delawaredave
Wed Feb 02, 2005 3:19 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching: Help a New Member
Replies: 26
Views: 32966

I thought the average historical PE was closer to 16 ? Also I read somewhere (Jeremy Siegel ?) that an average PE these days should be expected to be a little higher than PE's 20-40 years ago -- because there's more liquidity, more public information, and tighter accounting -- so one should pay a sl...
by Delawaredave
Tue Jan 25, 2005 5:52 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Any FIRE calcs with International market historical data ?
Replies: 14
Views: 15524

Regarding Multinationals - certainly US companies are gaining more and more sales/profit globally. But I think the bulk of the growth/profits from these emerging markets will come from native/regional companies. Plus the multinational is valued in the "home market". So DuPont gets 60% of i...
by Delawaredave
Tue Jan 25, 2005 1:41 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Any FIRE calcs with International market historical data ?
Replies: 14
Views: 15524

Well got an "up day" - finally I can sleep tonight....

Here's the link to the Goldman Sachs "BRIC" report - it is just boggling to me the possible changes in "global economic landscape".

http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/99.pdf
by Delawaredave
Tue Jan 25, 2005 3:26 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Any FIRE calcs with International market historical data ?
Replies: 14
Views: 15524

Thanks for above posts - great responses. There was a Goldman Sachs study in 2004 on BRIC economies (Brazil Russia India China) - I'll try to find/post link. If only 1/2 of the current growth rates of those economies continues, many of these countries will overtake the majority of the G7 economies i...
by Delawaredave
Mon Jan 24, 2005 4:36 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Any FIRE calcs with International market historical data ?
Replies: 14
Views: 15524

Any FIRE calcs with International market historical data ?

I'm wondering if any research has been done on a "magic counter-cyclical" international portfolio of stocks - and how that might have improved returns or reduced cyclicality over the last 20+ years. Or maybe reduced returns and increased volatility..... There's been a lot of great analysis...
by Delawaredave
Sun Jan 02, 2005 11:20 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Over Valued?
Replies: 32
Views: 29586

Does everyone agree that PE10 is the best measure ? Seems to me like averaging earnings over 10 years is too long - that's a couple of business cycles. I agree that earnings swing too much - and should be averaged. But if they're averaged over too long a period they distort the current trend - corre...
by Delawaredave
Fri Dec 31, 2004 9:35 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Over Valued?
Replies: 32
Views: 29586

Thanks for above. My estimated required SWR was net of inflation (I can never remember if that's "real" or "nominal".... The above posts, especially below quote, certainly signify "where I want to be" semi-retirement, where you retire to opportunity, personal developmen...
by Delawaredave
Thu Dec 30, 2004 1:51 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Over Valued?
Replies: 32
Views: 29586

John - thanks for above. I'm in the "accumulation" stage - in 10 years will have last kid through college - and probably "fully retire" then. For now, guess I gotta "keep my day job". Was hoping to "partially retire" early (read: now) and get into a "hobb...
by Delawaredave
Wed Dec 29, 2004 1:26 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Over Valued?
Replies: 32
Views: 29586

Then there's contrarian article to S&P 625... http://news.morningstar.com/doc/article/0,1,124522,00.html Interesting how two educated views can differ so widely. I guess I do believe that: - PE's should be higher than normal now because interest rates are so low, and - PE's should be higher than...
by Delawaredave
Wed Dec 29, 2004 1:10 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: P/E10's for International Markets
Replies: 9
Views: 10445

Thanks for above. Almost as if the world "has more capital than it needs" and that many/all worldwide asset classes are full/over valued. US stocks obviously are no value. International maybe also. Bonds same. Real Estate same. So where's the value investor to go in this world ? Maybe &quo...
by Delawaredave
Tue Dec 28, 2004 1:24 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: P/E10's for International Markets
Replies: 9
Views: 10445

P/E10's for International Markets

I'm trying to better understand International market valuations versus USA. Does anyone know where "equivalent" P/E10's (or regular current PE's) exist for various International markets ? I thought I read somewhere recently that: - Asian market PEs's are now averaging 11 - Europe market is...
by Delawaredave
Tue Dec 28, 2004 9:32 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Over Valued?
Replies: 32
Views: 29586

Thanks for above info. I need to get outside of the "stocks for the long haul" and "buy and hold" mentality. There's obviously other asset classes more appropriate at different times (like now....). I originally naively thought 7% total annual return (with inflation) would be con...
by Delawaredave
Tue Dec 28, 2004 5:55 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Over Valued?
Replies: 32
Views: 29586

New to this board. What an interesting (and scary) discussion. I'm no expert, but it is hard to defend current valuations - with huge downside potential and limited-at-best upside What's the best next course ? Are International equities/debt the answer ? Any good websites/discussions to learn more ?...