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I read the links. It would seem likely that SWRs for several countries are likely to be lower than US ones, based upon their lower equity returns. I don't think lower equity returns it's the cause, it's the sequence of them. We only have one history for the US stock market, with not so many non-ove...

The UK certainly went through some bad times. It is likely that the Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates of the mid-1960s were even worse than those starting in 1969. A series of flat returns early on really takes its toll. It is one thing to have a sharp drop follow a rapid rise. That is what hap...

And since at no moment since 1969 onwards, for the next 14 years or so, the cumulative real return has been positive, my simplified calculations are erring on the optimistic side - the sequence of returns for the first 4 years is unfavourable (two negatives and two positives), then the two year big ...

From chapter 4 of Triumph of the Optimists, available here, and the help of a ruler on the graph of page 6 of the pdf (page 49 of the book) I found the following: - from 1969 to 1973, cummulative real return on UK equities was essentially zero. The first two years were negative, the next two were po...

Our existing historical sequence calculators can be used with data other than that of the S&P500 index. It is a matter of making a copy of a calculator and then pasting new data into the right places. Getting the data can be difficult. Putting it into a calculator is not. You would probably lik...

I don't think markets such as Japan have stable track records as long as the US one. Investors before WWII pretty much lost everything when they lost the war IIRC, from Triumph of the Optimists, it was the bond market that was wiped out (definitely in the case of Germany). Even then, excluding peri...

Hello everyone, Is any of you aware of SWR studies (similar to Trinity) for non-US investors, using their local stock and bond markets? Just from eyeballing the Japanese data, it seems very likely that a 100% Nikkei investor, starting at the top of the market at the end of 1989, with a 3 to 4% initi...