Search found 98 matches

by bpp
Sun Jul 03, 2005 10:03 pm
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Rob Bennett's web site
Replies: 18
Views: 14869

my fault for dredging it up or jrw's for posting links to hocsu's web site and trying to help him sell his book? I'm not assigning fault. Just saying that I would be just as happy if nobody discussed any aspect of that old issue, or responded to other people discussing it. (With which, I will hence...
by bpp
Sat Jul 02, 2005 2:40 pm
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Rob Bennett's web site
Replies: 18
Views: 14869

Do we need to dredge this stuff up again?

Bpp
by bpp
Mon May 02, 2005 6:26 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: A TIPS Ladder Example
Replies: 103
Views: 69383

Sounds kind of like Value Averaging, unclemick. Is that right?

Bpp
by bpp
Tue Jan 18, 2005 11:24 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: GARCH
Replies: 171
Views: 55810

I still don't understand those chart labels :twisted: Are there two-count-em-two HDBR50 Fits ? PS#1: Yes, that is a glitch. The bottom line (magenta or reddish purple) should be labeled HDBR80. [It would have been better if the data and the lines had shared the same colors.] Sorry about the typo in...
by bpp
Sat Sep 25, 2004 9:21 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Next Great Bubble Boom
Replies: 8
Views: 5279

Hi unclemick, The American dollar has been falling for a while now - some posters (On other forums) who are ex pat and have to pay their bills in 'stronger' currencies are beginning to notice/feel some pain. Of course, those of us who are paid in 'stronger' currencies and regularly buy dollars are n...
by bpp
Fri Sep 24, 2004 8:01 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Next Great Bubble Boom
Replies: 8
Views: 5279

Hi Mac, BPP, can you detail how they are handling the phase-in? Do benefits start dropping immediately? Are people who are already retirement age grandfathered into the old benefit levels, or does everyone get hit? Your question prompted me to look up Japan's Social Insurance Agency webpage, where I...
by bpp
Thu Sep 23, 2004 2:58 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Next Great Bubble Boom
Replies: 8
Views: 5279

It is a good idea to look at how European countries and Japan handle their retirement systems. This will provide us an indication of what might happen to Social Security in the United States. I can tell you what Japan is doing. Legislation was passed a few months ago that will raise the social secu...
by bpp
Tue Aug 03, 2004 12:23 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Some people are jerks, but you never knew it ;-(
Replies: 41
Views: 23749

Killfiles Save Lives.

Bpp
by bpp
Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:04 pm
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Some people are jerks, but you never knew it ;-(
Replies: 41
Views: 23749

unclemick, don't think you will see much data. Yes, the issue is not Total Market vs Slice-and-Dice, or The-One-True-SWR-For-Fluffy-Kittens-and-Puppies vs The-Axis-of-Evil-of-the-False-SWR. It is really all just about personality conflicts. Nobody actually seems to disagree passionately enough abou...
by bpp
Fri Jul 09, 2004 8:25 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: squared one- from the beating a dead horse department
Replies: 62
Views: 33675

Ataloss writes:
good grief, I am even losing interest in this


I think I am finally reaching the stage of being officially over it.
This subject is just no fun any more.

Bpp
by bpp
Thu Jul 08, 2004 2:51 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: squared one- from the beating a dead horse department
Replies: 62
Views: 33675

Sigh. Ok, first Hocus: No, I will not join your campaign against Intercst. I have nothing personally against the guy, and don't even post to any of the same message boards that he does. His study is very simple-minded, with clearly spelled out limitations, which while it does not provide an actionab...
by bpp
Thu Jul 08, 2004 2:49 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: squared one- from the beating a dead horse department
Replies: 62
Views: 33675

The one item on which you are going very much off the rails is in your suggestion that, because the JWR1945 methodology has not been proven out, it is reasonable to continue to consider the methodology used in the REHP study as valid. This simply does not follow. That's also not what I said. I thin...
by bpp
Thu Jul 08, 2004 2:39 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: squared one- from the beating a dead horse department
Replies: 62
Views: 33675

No, Hocus, none of that rises to the level of proof.

Bpp
by bpp
Thu Jul 08, 2004 2:16 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: squared one- from the beating a dead horse department
Replies: 62
Views: 33675

SG, 3) You have not provided any justification or cause-and-effect analysis to explain why the PE10-SWR correlation is or should be linear in the range of observed data. If you bother to look at this, you will see that it doesn't look linear and that it is better fit to a decaying exponential or to ...
by bpp
Thu Jul 08, 2004 2:05 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: squared one- from the beating a dead horse department
Replies: 62
Views: 33675

Hocus, The 4 percent number has been proven to be a high-risk withdrawal number for those with high-stock percentage portfolios. It has only been shown to fall into the category of "high-risk withdrawal" according to your (or JWR's) chosen criteria. These criteria assume, further, that the...
by bpp
Wed Jul 07, 2004 6:37 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Definitions
Replies: 22
Views: 10562

Fair enough.

Bpp
by bpp
Wed Jul 07, 2004 2:39 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Definitions
Replies: 22
Views: 10562

Hi John R.,

Maybe it would be helpful if you could write down exactly what questions you are trying to answer here. For example, do you have a null hypothesis about what the SWR is? I don't...

Bpp
by bpp
Tue Jul 06, 2004 2:50 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Definitions
Replies: 22
Views: 10562

Hi John R., Here is an example of why I dislike one-sided statistical tests. Sure, mixing your definitions can be confusing. But I think in the case of SWR, the commonsense definition would be the one-sided one, since as I said, failure can only happen in one direction. If you tell me that you think...
by bpp
Mon Jul 05, 2004 10:56 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: squared one- from the beating a dead horse department
Replies: 62
Views: 33675

Hi Petey, The reference for this is probably long gone. It was definitely US war bonds though. To make sure we're talking about the same thing, these are World War II War Bonds? Also known as Defense Bonds, Victory Bonds, and after the war as E and then EE Bonds (which are also labelled Patriot Bond...
by bpp
Mon Jul 05, 2004 4:00 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: squared one- from the beating a dead horse department
Replies: 62
Views: 33675

Hi Petey, Many say that the US Govt is "risk-free" and ignore or aren't aware that the US Govt defaulted on their financing agreements on War Bonds. Do you have a reference for this? I have heard that the US government has never defaulted on a bond, and can't find anything to the contrary ...