Search found 278 matches

by Mike
Mon May 09, 2005 1:43 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: A TIPS Ladder Example
Replies: 103
Views: 64997

... a quarter of the remainder has disappeared because TIPS yields had to rise to compete with ever better looking stocks.


That's an interesting point.
by Mike
Tue Apr 19, 2005 7:00 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: Taxing problem for benefits
Replies: 2
Views: 3750

I favor a 1900 style federal tax code. That is, no federal income tax at all. No federal sales tax.
by Mike
Sun Mar 20, 2005 8:40 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Our Standard Analysis Procedures
Replies: 13
Views: 9675

...as the gov't honestly states CPI...
Real life retiree inflation appears to be much higher than the CPI for anyone who pays for their own medical insurance.
by Mike
Sat Mar 19, 2005 7:30 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Something Worth Knowing
Replies: 16
Views: 12166

Can I-Bonds be bought for a ira/sep and if you can how do you do it?
I bonds generally yield less than TIPS, because of their tax advantage for taxable accounts. TIPS most often offer a better yield for IRA type accounts.
by Mike
Sat Mar 19, 2005 7:17 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Overview: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 5
Views: 6620

Thank you Petey, I shall ponder these asset classes.
by Mike
Sat Mar 19, 2005 2:38 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Overview: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 5
Views: 6620

Thanks Petey. What global real estate and timber mutual funds do you recommend? Are global REITS and timber reasonably priced now? US REITS seem a bit pricey to me, but I don't know about global REITS or timber.
by Mike
Thu Mar 17, 2005 7:19 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Power of Dumb Investing
Replies: 5
Views: 5940

...and have no expertise...
I would try to get some.
by Mike
Thu Mar 17, 2005 6:54 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Overview: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 5
Views: 6620

Alternative choices include careful selection of stocks and other investments that differ significantly from the S&P500 as a whole.
Suggestions? I know you like high divvy stocks. Anything else?
by Mike
Sun Mar 13, 2005 7:14 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation based SWR Question
Replies: 16
Views: 11221

. Coming up with such a combination is far from trivial. Indeed. The equations are even more complex for taxable accounts. Taxes affect TIPS' return if they are not in an IRA. I bonds have low annual contribution limits, and lower yield than TIPS. Rebalancing with I bonds can be a protracted affair...
by Mike
Sun Mar 13, 2005 6:57 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Do you believe this international SWR data ?
Replies: 3
Views: 5582

I am highly suspicious of any approach that promotes an 8% withdrawal rate. Me too. Take a reasonable percentage. If your portfolio outperforms, you will be taking a reasonable percentage of a larger portfolio, effectively giving you a raise. That way if you don't outperform, you will still have a ...
by Mike
Sat Mar 12, 2005 7:27 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Valuation based SWR Question
Replies: 16
Views: 11221

We can draw out 2.5% for 40 years.
About the same as for portfolios that include 50% S&P.
We can draw out 2.0% for 50 years.
All bonds don't seem to work too well for youngsters.
by Mike
Fri Mar 11, 2005 7:56 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 17787

2.4 - 2.9% and soldier on.
Indeed, you play the hand you're dealt.
For most of us.
Yes, the majority cannot outperform themselves.
Observe that the Safe and Calculated Rates are higher with 50% stocks than with 80% stocks at today's valuations.
by Mike
Fri Mar 11, 2005 3:03 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 17787

Another way of looking at this is that today's Safe Withdrawal Rate using the traditional approach is 2.4%. Instead, we can start out at 2.9% without giving up safety as long as we are willing to make adjustments later. Thin gruel either way. There does not seem to be any way to win today by using ...
by Mike
Fri Mar 11, 2005 2:38 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Community
Replies: 7
Views: 6343

For instance, I am still waiting for the shoe to drop at the Index Forum, but so far, I haven't been ostracized for have most of my assets at Fido If they haven't thrown out a momentum investor like myself, you are probably safe with your much milder divergence from the group norm. :)
by Mike
Wed Mar 09, 2005 7:34 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Using both Initial and Current Valuations
Replies: 29
Views: 17787

Some of those SWR numbers dip pretty low.
by Mike
Tue Mar 01, 2005 1:29 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: REHP 2005 Portfolio Update
Replies: 6
Views: 6814

Boy was I lucky taking ER in 1993. History's tailwind was kind to me.
Indeed. The S&P/Fixed Income 1/1/2000 retiree is still under water.
by Mike
Sat Feb 19, 2005 11:16 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Volitility's role in distribution and accumulation
Replies: 4
Views: 5507

Heh, heh - my first question is: if I stay at or near the div/interest stream should volitility be discounted. If you could have lived strictly off of the dividends from your equities, there was no historical advantage to holding any bonds permanently. Switching out of equities during high P/E year...
by Mike
Thu Feb 17, 2005 10:38 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Hobby Stocks and Rebalancing
Replies: 14
Views: 10064

Rebalancing is inferior most of the time because the rebalancing bonus is not sufficient to overcome the performance drag caused by holding Treasury Bills. Since asset classes such as commodities, and SCV have rates of return equal to or better than the S&P, rebalancing with them would seem to have...
by Mike
Thu Feb 17, 2005 6:44 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Hobby Stocks and Rebalancing
Replies: 14
Views: 10064

Right now, today, rebalancing is a good idea. These are stressful times. Rebalancing is a limited form of switching/market timing. It is not surprising that it works best at higher valuations, since that is when switching away from stocks statistically adds value. (Stocks go up most of the time, so...