Not Enough Censorship There is one area in which Hocus and I disagree. I favor censorship on discussion boards. Hocus is willing to tolerate almost anything. I prefer heavy censorship.John R. I agree completely. Without censorship, Gresham's Law takes over, and careful reasoned, polite discourse is...
JWR 1945, I am sorry to hear that you are not feeling well. Get better soon! I hope you will consider starting a website that displays your work, and only your work. I and others sometimes need to ask questions; if that can be accommodated that would be good also. Another possibility would be a Yaho...
A withdrawal rate that SURVIVED was SAFE. I agree that this is causing a lot of problems/confusion. SURVIVED=SAFE!!! That was in the PAST of course and we don't know the future. (even Hocus's example of his drunk driving :lol: proved safe in the past! I also agree that the future may not lend the s...
Even crude confidence limits are vastly superior to having no confidence limits at all. There is solid evidence that the historical sequences in the past were lucky sequences or, at least, far from being unlucky. We have been able to quantify such effects. Portfolio survivability is influenced by b...
It's slander! Outrageous slander! Imagine how you would feel if somebody said this about you: Here's a list of 20 of the greatest savers in the world, and the saving goals that helped make them become 20 of the greatest savers in the world. I've identified these savers by the screen-names they used ...
Juicy Quote #4: "The gift of longevity is behind the new shift in the way people think about retirement. In 1900 the average American lived to the not-so-ripe age of 47. Today that number is 77, and rising." This sort of statement is very misleading. The low life expectancy in 1900 was al...
JWR 1945, It will take me a while to work through the stuff you cited in your post above at 10:59, February 3, 2005. It looks as though all the questions I have been wondering about are probably answered in one or another of these posts. Thanks for your work and your efforts to make it accessible to...
JWR1945 wrote:This is the closest that I can come to a single direct answer. I was surprised to find that this is on page 6 of 7 in the SWR Research Board's contents.
John R.
Perfect! I think this clarifies it for me very well.
Thanks
It is highly significant that P/E10, which is derived from the entire S&P500 index, helps us allocate stocks that constitute only a fraction of the index. We do not have to do a lot of number crunching. We can go to Professor Shiller's website and use his numbers. OK, got that .I assumed that w...
Caution: I have not made any adjustments for today's valuations. The actual improvement starting with today's valuations are likely to be less. You can still estimate relative performance when compared to the S&P500 index. It will be interesting to see how Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates ...
Switching with Small Cap Value Stocks I used my Gummy 03 version of the Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08 Revised: January 28, 2005. I weighted the stock allocation entirely to Small Cap Value. Conditions I set the starting balance at $100000. I set expenses to 0.20%. I varied the withdrawal rate. I used t...
As I say, if none of that is clear, please speak up. Once you have this clear in your head it is tremendously useful but takes a bit of doing the first time.Petey Very interesting exposition. But I imagine Lena'a problem is more down to earth, as is mine. Say one is absolutely convinced that varyin...
The following numbers are in real dollars. That is, they are adjusted to match inflation. Withdrawals of 4% mean 4% plus inflation. If inflation is 3%, the withdrawal amount totals 7%. Hmm. I must not understand the way you are using these rates. With my math, if one is using a 4% withdrawal rate, ...
The best thing to do might be to take reasonable guesses as to how most investors would respond to various possible outcomes, describe the basis of those assumptions in the write-ups, and then report in the write-ups the results that would be obtained presuming that the reasonable guesses in fact t...
It is a good idea to look at how European countries and Japan handle their retirement systems. This will provide us an indication of what might happen to Social Security in the United States. I can tell you what Japan is doing. BPP, can you detail how they are handling the phase-in? Do benefits sta...
Did he make a mistake, or did I? You got it right. On second thought, maybe you didn't. The question is whether to "call a $10 bet with $50 in the pot." If you call the bet, the pot becomes $60. Based on $60, the expected returns become [9/47]*$60 = $11.49 and [8/47]*$60 = $10.12. Have fu...
Hi Hocus, JWR, et.al. I read this Legg Mason speech about probability, as well as some of the other presentations. Very good! How did you find this? Anyway, in his speech David Nelson poses the question whetner one should call a $10 bet with $50 in the pot, and having either of the following hands: ...