Search found 31 matches

by MacDuff
Sat Mar 26, 2005 11:44 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: I Want To Be Your Board General!
Replies: 10
Views: 12712

th wrote:The only problem is the troll is also macduff.
This is rich! First of all, I am not Hocus. Second, if I were, how could Hocus troll his own board?

mac
by MacDuff
Fri Mar 25, 2005 10:38 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Not Enough Censorship
Replies: 6
Views: 8017

Not Enough Censorship There is one area in which Hocus and I disagree. I favor censorship on discussion boards. Hocus is willing to tolerate almost anything. I prefer heavy censorship.John R. I agree completely. Without censorship, Gresham's Law takes over, and careful reasoned, polite discourse is...
by MacDuff
Wed Mar 23, 2005 1:00 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 38260

JWR 1945, I am sorry to hear that you are not feeling well. Get better soon! I hope you will consider starting a website that displays your work, and only your work. I and others sometimes need to ask questions; if that can be accommodated that would be good also. Another possibility would be a Yaho...
by MacDuff
Tue Mar 22, 2005 4:28 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 38260

A withdrawal rate that SURVIVED was SAFE. I agree that this is causing a lot of problems/confusion. SURVIVED=SAFE!!! That was in the PAST of course and we don't know the future. (even Hocus's example of his drunk driving :lol: proved safe in the past! I also agree that the future may not lend the s...
by MacDuff
Tue Mar 22, 2005 3:47 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Getting a newbie up to speed quickly
Replies: 75
Views: 38260

Even crude confidence limits are vastly superior to having no confidence limits at all. There is solid evidence that the historical sequences in the past were lucky sequences or, at least, far from being unlucky. We have been able to quantify such effects. Portfolio survivability is influenced by b...
by MacDuff
Tue Feb 22, 2005 5:28 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Re: Our Web Site
Replies: 78
Views: 38473

It's slander! Outrageous slander! Imagine how you would feel if somebody said this about you: Here's a list of 20 of the greatest savers in the world, and the saving goals that helped make them become 20 of the greatest savers in the world. I've identified these savers by the screen-names they used ...
by MacDuff
Tue Feb 08, 2005 7:37 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: A New Vision of Retirement
Replies: 6
Views: 4719

Re: A New Vision of Retirement

Juicy Quote #4: "The gift of longevity is behind the new shift in the way people think about retirement. In 1900 the average American lived to the not-so-ripe age of 47. Today that number is 77, and rising." This sort of statement is very misleading. The low life expectancy in 1900 was almost solel...
by MacDuff
Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:17 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching with Small Cap Value Stocks
Replies: 28
Views: 11899

JWR 1945, It will take me a while to work through the stuff you cited in your post above at 10:59, February 3, 2005. It looks as though all the questions I have been wondering about are probably answered in one or another of these posts. Thanks for your work and your efforts to make it accessible to...
by MacDuff
Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:05 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching: Help a New Member
Replies: 26
Views: 11862

JWR1945 wrote:This is the closest that I can come to a single direct answer. I was surprised to find that this is on page 6 of 7 in the SWR Research Board's contents.
John R.

Perfect! I think this clarifies it for me very well.
Thanks :)

mac
by MacDuff
Thu Feb 03, 2005 10:51 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching with Small Cap Value Stocks
Replies: 28
Views: 11899

It is highly significant that P/E10, which is derived from the entire S&P500 index, helps us allocate stocks that constitute only a fraction of the index. We do not have to do a lot of number crunching. We can go to Professor Shiller's website and use his numbers. OK, got that .I assumed that w...
by MacDuff
Wed Feb 02, 2005 11:06 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching with Small Cap Value Stocks
Replies: 28
Views: 11899

Caution: I have not made any adjustments for today's valuations. The actual improvement starting with today's valuations are likely to be less. You can still estimate relative performance when compared to the S&P500 index. It will be interesting to see how Historical Surviving Withdrawal Rates ...
by MacDuff
Wed Feb 02, 2005 10:53 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching with Small Cap Value Stocks
Replies: 28
Views: 11899

Switching with Small Cap Value Stocks I used my Gummy 03 version of the Deluxe Calculator V1.1A08 Revised: January 28, 2005. I weighted the stock allocation entirely to Small Cap Value. Conditions I set the starting balance at $100000. I set expenses to 0.20%. I varied the withdrawal rate. I used t...
by MacDuff
Wed Feb 02, 2005 10:00 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching: Help a New Member
Replies: 26
Views: 11862

As I say, if none of that is clear, please speak up. Once you have this clear in your head it is tremendously useful but takes a bit of doing the first time.Petey Very interesting exposition. But I imagine Lena'a problem is more down to earth, as is mine. Say one is absolutely convinced that varyin...
by MacDuff
Wed Feb 02, 2005 9:42 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Switching: Help a New Member
Replies: 26
Views: 11862

The following numbers are in real dollars. That is, they are adjusted to match inflation. Withdrawals of 4% mean 4% plus inflation. If inflation is 3%, the withdrawal amount totals 7%. Hmm. I must not understand the way you are using these rates. With my math, if one is using a 4% withdrawal rate, ...
by MacDuff
Wed Feb 02, 2005 9:02 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: E10/P stuff
Replies: 5
Views: 3706

gummy wrote:I used Schiller's monthy earnings data (from 1871) to calculate the EMA each month, then used the January EMA value in the spreadsheet.

Then, if I understand correctly, you are using real or indexed earnings?

Mac
by MacDuff
Sat Oct 16, 2004 10:34 am
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: 30-Year Stock Returns Starting at Recent Valuations
Replies: 20
Views: 7240

The best thing to do might be to take reasonable guesses as to how most investors would respond to various possible outcomes, describe the basis of those assumptions in the write-ups, and then report in the write-ups the results that would be obtained presuming that the reasonable guesses in fact t...
by MacDuff
Fri Sep 24, 2004 4:43 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Next Great Bubble Boom
Replies: 8
Views: 4480

It is a good idea to look at how European countries and Japan handle their retirement systems. This will provide us an indication of what might happen to Social Security in the United States. I can tell you what Japan is doing. BPP, can you detail how they are handling the phase-in? Do benefits sta...
by MacDuff
Wed Sep 15, 2004 5:39 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Driving Drunk & Other "100% Safe" Actions
Replies: 11
Views: 4779

JWR1945 wrote:You may have been thinking about five card stud or some other game that is played one card at a time on the table.John R.

You are right. I finally have this understood. Thanks.

Mac
by MacDuff
Mon Sep 13, 2004 4:00 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Driving Drunk & Other "100% Safe" Actions
Replies: 11
Views: 4779

Did he make a mistake, or did I? You got it right. On second thought, maybe you didn't. The question is whether to "call a $10 bet with $50 in the pot." If you call the bet, the pot becomes $60. Based on $60, the expected returns become [9/47]*$60 = $11.49 and [8/47]*$60 = $10.12. Have fu...
by MacDuff
Sun Sep 12, 2004 6:39 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Driving Drunk & Other "100% Safe" Actions
Replies: 11
Views: 4779

Hi Hocus, JWR, et.al. I read this Legg Mason speech about probability, as well as some of the other presentations. Very good! How did you find this? Anyway, in his speech David Nelson poses the question whetner one should call a $10 bet with $50 in the pot, and having either of the following hands: ...