Search found 6 matches

by dbphd
Fri Aug 27, 2004 6:50 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: Our Strong Theoretical Foundations
Replies: 4
Views: 3770

I'm not sure why I'm left with the feeling this is less than a rigorous defense of market timing, perhaps the notion that if only stocks hadn't performed so well during the "bubble," i.e. if only there were not this data that doesn't fit our model, our case would be clearer, adds to my une...
by dbphd
Wed Jun 30, 2004 10:21 am
Forum: Town Center
Topic: Congratulations
Replies: 63
Views: 36105

My studies have shown that exactly 473 angels can dance on the head of a pin simultaneously. My PhD is in angel dancing, so I should know.

by dbphd
Sat Jun 12, 2004 1:53 pm
Forum: SWR Research Group
Topic: The Facts about Hocus's Investment Decisions
Replies: 22
Views: 9769

John, Given that you're into revisionist history, can't you fault hocus for not having locking in his entire portfolio at 7%? Or he could have locked in his portfolio during the Carter administration, and had what at zero risk? Past actions can look good in hindsight, but it's a leap to think of you...
by dbphd
Sat Jun 07, 2003 1:17 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: How will you use a "new/improved" swr analysis
Replies: 49
Views: 26235

I just came from reading postings on TMF FIRE board, and was refreshed by the absense of this pointless debate. Now I see a really excellent board in danger of being despoiled. I contend that the only true SWR is exactly 3.26595% and that exactly 5 billion angels can dance on the head of a pin. So t...
by dbphd
Thu May 29, 2003 6:09 pm
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: The Great SWR Investigation - Part 1
Replies: 125
Views: 41266

Raddar's caveats regarding potential impacts on predicting any SWR remind me of those so often found in technical papers. Bottom line, we can't predict anything with certainty, need more data and more analyses, so please renew our NSF grant for another three years. Hell, I've written those myself. I...
by dbphd
Fri Dec 27, 2002 11:38 am
Forum: FIRE Board
Topic: REHP SWR Study Whinge...
Replies: 5
Views: 3450


Euro, I posted a reply at the TMF board. The concern you express has been of concern to me as well. I assume one will want to reset the basis for a SWR when changes in conditions warrant. My original plan had been to take a fixed percentage (4 or 5%) of our portfolio each year based on the value of ...